Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction markets

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美国多位参议员联手向商品期货交易委员会施压，要求严查所谓的“野火预测市场”——这类平台允许用户花钱下注，赌某地会不会发生野火、火势多大。最典型的是Polymarket，今年1月洛杉矶山火期间就开设了相关赌局。议员们批评这是“拿灾区人民的痛苦来赚钱”，让富人借灾难获利。说白了，这就像给天灾开了一个博彩盘口，既缺乏监管，又容易引发道德争议。虽然目前这类赌注多为“模拟盘”，但一旦正规化，普通人可能会看到更多跟灾难挂钩的投机产品，比如台风、洪水也能下注，这不仅会淡化灾害的严肃性，还可能滋生利用灾难信息差牟利的行为，甚至助长阴谋论。目前监管机构尚未回应，但风暴已经来了。

Several US senators have written a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), inquiring about the agency’s “plans to crack down on prediction markets” that offer “contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires.” “Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering, all so the rich and powerful can profit,” wrote the group of senators, who represent Oregon, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. The document specifically cites that Polymarket hosted bets in January 2025 on the wildfires in Los Angeles, and it mentions another website which specifically accepts “simulated bets” exclusively on California wildfires.Read full article Comments