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CNBC AI · 2026/8/4 05:01:01

Deutsche Bank says gold’s 'explosive' run isn't over and gives a bullish end-of-year forecast
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德意志银行最新报告引爆市场关注:黄金这波“爆炸式”上涨还没结束!德银分析师给出年底黄金合理价位约4700美元/盎司的看涨预测,比6月份的预测更乐观。要知道,黄金自2024年8月以来价格已经翻了一倍,虽然最近六个月有所回调,但德银认为这只是暂时的喘息。
通俗来说,黄金就像一位跑马拉松的运动员,虽然中间会减速调整,但整体冲刺势头并未停止。德银用专业统计方法确认,这轮上涨行情从2024年8月启动,目前仍在进行中。即便国际清算银行曾警告金价可能进入“泡沫区”,德银依然坚定看多,认为市场回调只是短期现象而非趋势逆转。
对普通人而言,这意味着如果你持有黄金相关投资产品,可能会迎来不错的回报窗口;如果你打算购买金饰或金条,现在可能是相对合适的时机。同时,黄金作为避险资产,其持续走高也反映了全球经济的波动性,消费者的钱包和生活成本可能会继续承压。当然,投资有风险,德银的预测也并非铁板钉钉,市场永远充满变数。
Skip NavigationMarketsPre-MarketsU.S. MarketsCurrenciesPrediction MarketsCryptocurrencyFutures & CommoditiesBondsFunds & ETFsBusinessEconomyFinanceHealth & ScienceMediaReal EstateEnergyClimateTransportationInvestigationsIndustrialsRetailWealthSportsLifeSmall BusinessInvestingPersonal FinanceFintechFinancial AdvisorsOptions ActionETF StreetBuffett ArchiveEarningsTrader TalkTechCybersecurityAIEnterpriseInternetMediaMobileSocial MediaCNBC Disruptor 50Tech GuidePolitics & PolicyWhite HousePolicyDefenseCongressExpanding OpportunityVideoLatest VideoFull EpisodesLivestreamLive AudioLive TV ScheduleCNBC PodcastsCEO InterviewsCNBC DocumentariesDigital OriginalsWatchlistInvesting ClubTrust PortfolioAnalysisTrade AlertsMeeting VideosHomestretchJim's ColumnsEducationSubscribePROPro NewsJosh BrownMike SantoliCalls of the DayMy PortfolioLivestreamFull EpisodesStock ScreenerMarket ForecastOptions InvestingChart InvestingSubscribeLivestreamMenuMake ItselectUSAINTLLivestreamSearch quotes, news & videosLivestreamWatchlistSIGN INCreate free accountMarketsBusinessInvestingTechPolitics & PolicyVideoWatchlistInvesting ClubPROLivestreamMenuDeutsche Bank says gold’s 'explosive' run isn't over and gives a bullish end-of-year forecastPublished Tue, Aug 4 20261:01 AM EDTJoseph WilkinsWATCH LIVEThe price of gold has undergone an "explosive" phase for two years and that behavior isn't done yet, according to Deutsche Bank. The yellow metal has endured a tough six months, sitting well below its all-time high achieved earlier this year after a blistering rally that extended through and beyond 2025. But the metal has still doubled in price since August 2024, which Deutsche's analysts called "explosive" in a note published Monday. "A statistical measure indicates that the current episode of explosive gold price behavior began from August 2024 and is ongoing," the strategists wrote. Spot gold hit $5,589.38/oz on January 29, before the war in the Middle East raised the prospects for higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, which in turn took the shine off its performance. Spot gold was last seen trading at around $4,031.45 an ounce, while gold futures traded at $4,085.90. @GC.1 YTD mountain How gold futures have performed year-to-date. Deutsche noted a December 2025 warning from the Bank of International Settlements that a statistical test suggested that the gold market had entered bubble-like territory and that a significant correction could follow. But the view of the strategists is positive, and Deutsche forecasts gold's fair value as "likely to register around $4,700 per ounce by the end of the year, and $4,600 per ounce by the fourth quarter. This is a more bullish take than the German bank's previous forecast on June 23, written when inflation fears were rife. Deutsche analysts wrote in that note that "hawks are driving out bulls" in the gold market, outlining the risk that three to four interest-rate hikes by the Fed could take gold as low as $3,800 an ounce. This is because the prospect of higher interest rates made yielding assets, like bonds, more attractive versus non-yielding gold, they said.More In Pro AnalysisMagnificent 7 ETF falls to record low valuation. Some stocks in the group could be great buysTobias BurnsThis Japanese memory maker fell 40% in July — analysts see a buying opportunityJustina LeeThis week's earnings scrambled everything we knew about investing in the 'Magnificent Seven'Tobias BurnsRead MoreSubscribe to CNBC PROSubscribe to Investing ClubLicensing & ReprintsCNBC CouncilsSelect Personal FinanceJoin the CNBC PanelClosed CaptioningDigital ProductsNews ReleasesInternshipsCorrectionsAbout CNBCSite MapPodcastsCareersHelpContactNews TipsGot a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you.Get In TouchCNBC NewslettersSign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inboxSign Up NowGet this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.Advertise With UsPlease Contact UsAd ChoicesPrivacy
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