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arXiv Machine Learning · 2026/7/31 14:27:28

Parameter-Free Heavy-Tailed Bandits

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核心亮点:一篇论文解决了“重尾分布”下的在线决策难题,让算法在不知道极端事件概率的情况下也能自动适应并做出最优选择。 通俗解读:想象你在投资或管理广告投放时,偶尔会遇到“百年一遇”的极端情况,比如股市暴跌或流量暴涨。这类问题叫“重尾分布”,传统算法必须提前知道极端情况有多极端、多频繁才能应对。但现实中这些数据恰恰最难估计。这篇研究首次证明,即使完全不知道这些参数,算法也能通过“边试边调整”的策略,达到几乎不输给“开挂”算法的效果,还给出了理论上的性能极限。 实际影响:这意味着未来的智能推荐、金融风控和网络调度系统,可以在真实环境更不可预测的情况下稳健运行,不用反复人工调参。对普通人来说,以后用到的AI服务会更加可靠,比如购物推荐不会因为一次异常订单就崩溃,投资软件也能更好应对市场突发波动,减少“黑天鹅”事件带来的损失。
Heavy-tailed distributions arise naturally in sequential decision-making problems such as financial investment, online advertising, and network management, where rare but extreme outcomes can dominate performance. Heavy-tailed bandits model online decision-making in these settings by assuming only that rewards $X$ satisfy $\mathbb{E}[|X|^{1+ε}]\leq u$, for some tail exponent $ε\in(0,1]$ and moment bound $u<+\infty$. However, most existing regret minimization algorithms require these parameters to be known. This assumption is particularly restrictive in practice: $ε$ and $u$ govern the frequency and magnitude of rare events and are therefore precisely the quantities that are hardest to infer reliably from limited observations. Motivated by an open problem posed by Genalti and Metelli at COLT 2025, we resolve the assumption-free adaptation problem for heavy-tailed bandits and characterize the price in the regret of not knowing the tail parameters. We first study adaptation to the moment bound $u$ for a fixed tail exponent $ε$. We prove that every algorithm unaware of $u$, or of any upper bound on it, must obey a sharp trade-off between its distribution-dependent and distribution-free regret guarantees. We then introduce a scheduled-exploration algorithm that requires no knowledge of $u$ and matches the resulting adaptation frontier up to logarithmic factors. Finally, we show that the same algorithm can be instanced without knowing $ε$ by calibrating its exploration schedule to the endpoint $ε=1$. It achieves sublinear regret for every fixed $ε>0$, while no algorithm can guarantee sublinear regret uniformly over all $ε\in(0,1]$. Altogether, our results resolve the COLT open problem without additional distributional assumptions and provide a sharp characterization of the statistical cost of adapting to unknown heavy tails.
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