The Kinetics of Training: A Driven-Nucleation Rate Law for Emergence, Plasticity Loss, and Circuit Control in Language Models

arXiv:2607.27281v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A capability appears in a language model when the last parts of its circuit align in one stochastic attempt, and getting all but one right is worth nothing. We show this no-partial-credit joint alignment is the rate-limiting step of capability formation. Two fingerprints: in a shortcut-free apparatus a five-part circuit missing three waits as long as a three-part circuit missing three (1.19-1.37), so the wait counts missing parts, not size; and on Pythia across seven capabilities and three scales, ablating one part leaves a median 17% of the capability in 32 of 32 discriminating cells, where partial credit predicts 50-83% (p = 2e-10), while a random non-part head leaves 100%. One rare event whose barrier grows with missing parts yields a rate equation -- sites x attempts x drive x exp(-beta*K), minus destruction -- read three ways, each preregistered with frozen constants. Forward: a capability flat at baseline ignites at a step of our choosing once the mix passes a concentration floor (10/10 above, 0/12 below), and while still flat its arrival is datable from its precursor to 5% median error on six held-out models. Backward: the delay to learn a withheld capability grows with waiting until, past a critical step, it never ignites -- yet validation loss falls smoothly throughout, so standard monitors are blind to it. We locate the damage (heads commit to the base data) and isolate the cure: re-initializing only the query-key slices restores learnability (6/6) while the value slices do nothing (0/6). We prove the mechanism in a controlled gated-attention model: occupation forces a deadline whose consequences need no mixing assumption. Completed: SGD's noise fails the fluctuation-dissipation test, so we install one and anneal, melt and pin circuits on schedule. Scope: conjunction circuits in transformers to 1.4B.