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CNET AI · 2026/7/30 18:58:10

Samsung Expects the Chip Shortage to Get Worse Before It Gets Better
AI 中文解读
三星最新预测:芯片短缺还要再熬四年!核心亮点是,三星在财报电话会上给科技爱好者泼了一盆冷水——内存芯片的供应紧张不仅不会缓解,反而在2027年比2026年更严峻,预计要到2028年后才可能看到转机。
通俗解读:这轮“芯片荒”的罪魁祸首是AI。训练大模型需要海量服务器,服务器里又需要大量内存芯片,而这些芯片正是手机、电脑等消费电子产品的核心。三星高管透露,AI公司现在抢芯片像抢演唱会门票,甚至签下多年供货协议,导致普通消费者能分到的份额越来越少。
实际影响:这意味着你接下来买手机、笔记本、平板可能更贵。苹果、微软已经带头涨价,三星自己的新款折叠屏手机也贵了几百块。即便你想等降价,至少四年内别抱太大希望。对普通用户来说,换机周期可能得拉长,或者接受“加价不加量”的现状——比如同配置的电脑比去年贵了好几百,但性能提升却有限。
Don’t expect lower prices on tech anytime soon.
That’s the takeaway from what Samsung execs said on the company’s second-quarter earnings call Thursday. The company expects the memory chip shortage behind rising tech prices to continue through 2028.
The RAM shortage, sometimes dubbed RAMageddon, is driven by high demand for memory (and low supply) driven by the rapid growth of AI and demand for the chips that power all those data centers. That means the chips for your devices like laptops and smartphones are costing manufacturers more.
Jaejune Kim, Samsung’s executive vice president of memory, broke down what the supply and demand in the memory market means for Samsung in the Q2 earnings call. Kim said that the rapid adoption of agentic AI has led to increased demand and use of AI servers and overall computing. And AI frontier model developers are struggling to get enough cloud capacity.
Other factors are affecting memory supply and demand, including AI developers seeking to meet their memory needs through Samsung — even aiming for multiyear supply agreements where possible. That means the company has a sense of the longer-term demand for memory.
“So we believe it will be unlikely to see any significant increase in incremental supply through 2028. Based on the incoming requests that we have been seeing from the customers, unmet demand from this year is likely to carry over into the following year, contributing to tighter supply conditions going forward. The supply constraints are expected to become even more severe in 2027 than 2026, reinforcing our view that the supply shortage will persist through 2028,” said Kim.
Thinking beyond into 2029 is hard to say due to limited visibility, Kim added.
Daniel Araujo, Samsung’s vice president of mobile experience, said the demand for AI servers is also driving the mobile memory shortage and the resulting high prices. That demand won’t slow down anytime soon, either. Samsung hopes that sales from the S26 series and new premium products, such as the Tab S12 foldable series and the Watch Ultra 2, will boost profits.
Samsung didn’t say whether we should expect higher prices in the future, but some new products revealed at Samsung Unpacked already cost more than earlier models, like the $1,200 Galaxy Z Fold 8. The memory chip shortage has already led to other big-name tech companies, including Apple and Microsoft, to increase prices on new and existing products.
Dashia Milden
Editor
Dashia is the consumer insights editor for CNET. She specializes in data-driven analysis and news at the intersection of tech, personal finance and consumer sentiment. Dashia investigates economic shifts and everyday challenges to help readers make well-informed decisions, and she covers a range of topics, including technology, security, energy and money. Dashia graduated from the University of South Carolina with a bachelor's degree in journalism. She loves baking, teaching spinning and spending time with her family.
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