Judge blocks first state law that would have banned prediction markets

AI 中文解读

明尼苏达州原计划成为全美第一个全面禁止预测市场的州，但就在禁令即将生效前几天，联邦法院紧急叫停了这项法律。核心争议在于，预测市场（比如对选举、体育赛事等事件下注的网站）到底算不算赌博，以及该由谁监管。明尼苏达州认为这本质上就是赌博，但美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）坚持自己拥有独家监管权，相关法律问题仍在扯皮。法院暂时允许预测平台在明尼苏达州继续运营，但部分特定类型的投注未来可能仍会被禁止。对普通人来说，短期内在Kalshi、Polymarket这类平台上参与预测不会突然违法，但长期看法律地位依然模糊。如果你住在明尼苏达或者常用这类平台，暂时不用急着收手，但也要留意后续判决可能带来的变数——毕竟监管层随时可能改口。

Minnesota, the first US state to prohibit prediction markets, was prevented from enforcing the law by a federal court ruling just days before the ban was scheduled to take effect. But while Minnesota was stopped from enforcing a total ban, the state may ultimately be allowed to prohibit some types of prediction-market wagers. The Trump administration and the two largest prediction markets—Kalshi and Polymarket—sued Minnesota after the state enacted the law in May. The cases were consolidated, and a ruling issued yesterday imposed a preliminary injunction blocking the law that was scheduled to take effect on August 1. Minnesota lawmakers saw prediction markets as indistinguishable from gambling, but the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) argues it has exclusive authority to regulate the platforms under federal law. One of the primary legal questions is whether event contracts are "swaps," which are regulated by the CFTC.Read full article Comments