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arXiv Machine Learning · 2026/7/28 04:00:00
CC-AOS: Cost- and Horizon-Conditioned Amortized Backward Induction for Finite-Horizon Optimal Stopping
AI 中文解读
1. 核心亮点:科学家新发明了一个智能“决策大脑”,能一次性搞定不同时间长度和成本预算下的最优停止问题,不再需要反复算账、换模型。
2. 通俗解读:很多任务都需要在“继续观察”和“及时止损”之间做抉择,比如发动机噪音监测:听多久才能既省钱又准确判断故障?传统方法对每个不同的预算和时间都得单独训练一个模型,换条件就得重来。新方法CC-AOS学了一个通用的本领,不管成本高低、时间长短,它都能根据当前信息直接算出最佳决策,就像有了一个经验丰富的老手,看一眼就知道该不该停。
3. 实际影响:这项技术能直接降低工业监测、医疗诊断、金融交易等场景的部署成本。比如工厂想换一套更便宜的传感器,或者临时需要提前做判断,系统不需要重新培训,一个模型就能适应所有变化。实验中,它在发动机噪音数据上比传统方法平均节省了15.75%的总花费,既保准了判断准确率,又省下了观测费用。未来普通用户也可能用到更便宜、更灵活的智能报警系统或健康监测设备。
arXiv:2607.22774v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Finite-horizon optimal stopping is a central problem in early time-series classification, where a system must decide at each sequence prefix whether the expected benefit of another observation justifies its acquisition cost. Existing data-driven backward-induction methods typically solve each cost-horizon operating point separately, so changing operating conditions requires repeated optimization and separate model stacks, making continuous cost adaptation and multi-horizon deployment inefficient. We propose CC-AOS (Cost- and Horizon-Conditioned Amortized Optimal Stopping), a structured amortized solver for a family of finite-horizon stopping problems with continuous costs and multiple horizons. CC-AOS learns a shared continuation-value model conditioned on the current state, absolute time, remaining horizon, and acquisition cost through joint amortized fitted backward induction. We establish that the exact value and continuation functions are nondecreasing, concave, and horizon-dependently Lipschitz in cost, encode these properties in the model architecture, and derive residual-based bounds on value and policy errors. Experiments on controlled Gaussian and time-varying non-Gaussian processes and the FordA engine-noise time-series benchmark compare CC-AOS with representative per-operating-point backward-induction solvers and tuned static stopping rules. At six unseen FordA cost-horizon pairs, one CC-AOS checkpoint achieved a lower terminal-risk-plus-sampling-cost objective than independently fitted Convex Function Learning at all six pairs, with an average reduction of 15.75 percent, while matching the tuned static thresholds on average.
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